The 6 Step Strategy To Win Pak's "Merge" [2/2].
In this blog post I'm going to show you how to maximize your merge "gains" by using my 6-step strategy. I don't know if Pak is going to like it, but you sure will!
Merge by Pak is not only the MOST EXPENSIVE artwork sold by a living artist, but it’s also an incredibly sophisticated blockchain-based game.
Oh, and the best part? I figured out how to win it.
Since Merge is a project created by Murat Pak, as usual, some people will win, and others will WIN BIG.
Today, you will learn how to WIN BIG.
And yes, this strategy will work whether you own just a couple of Merge NFTs or even hundreds of them.
But before you begin reading this post - make sure you’ve read part 1 of this blog post.
Alright, let’s get started.
Mass.Black: Transform Your Merge To a Valuable NFT
Most of you know of marketplaces such as OpenSea and NiftyGateway, which let you acquire NFTs with $ETH.
But not too long ago, Pak created a new type of an NFT marketplace - mass.black.
At mass.black you won’t be able to buy the NFTs with cryptocurrencies (ETH, ASH, etc.).
The only way to UNLOCK a mass.black NFTs is by using your Merge NFT.
Mass.black NFTs are extremely valuable and unique.
Why?
Because all of the mass.black’s NFTs are “Burnable NFTs”.
What are “Buranble NFTs”, you ask?
They are basically like any other NFT, except that they are 100% liquid!
What does it mean?
YOU DON’T NEED A BUYER.
Yes, you read that right.
Sure, if you wanted to, you could try to sell your “Burnable NFT” to another collector through OpenSea…
But you can also “destroy” it and TA-DA!
You immediately have ~$2,000 in your wallet (at the time of writing).
How?
This is all possible through the ASH Ecosystem which Pak created.
You can simply go to burn.art website, click a couple of buttons, and that’s pretty much it. You’ll get ~$2k worth of $ASH in a few seconds.
It’s really as simple as that.
This concept will revolutionize the entire NFT scene, and it definitely deserves a dedicated blog post (soon).
Merge: A Key That Unlocks a New World
“mass.black is a place where mass collectors will claim NFTs… I wanted to add an additional layer of value (to merge) to show that NFTs are more than "just jpegs".”
(Murat Pak).
Merge is not just a piece of visual art… it also serves as your key to the mass.black Project.
How mass.black and Merge are connected?
Think of mass.black as a Game. A game that “eats“ Merge NFTs and “spits” fresh Pak Burnable NFTs.
In the mass.black game, you’ll have to “play” with your existing Merge tokens so they'll meet a specific criteria (more on that later).
Once your Merge token meets the criteria - that Merge token becomes a key that can get you a mass.black Burnable NFT.
An NFT that can be worth a lot of $$$!
Sounds good! Maybe even TOO good…
Why would anyone give away NFTs?!
Pak is doing this for a reason.
The Merge Killer
Pak gave Merge Project an official second name - a Game of Extinction.
Why?
Because of the “merging mechanism”.
When 2 Merge tokens are in the same wallet - one token “dies” while the other gets bigger (they merge) and survives.
Mass.black is Pak’s way to reduce the total supply of Merge tokens.
How?
By rewarding collectors with Burnable NFTs, Pak gives his collectors a compelling reason to “merge” their NFTs.
Simply put: mass.black is Pak’s Merge Killer.
This means that the total Merge supply will decrease over time.
And as we all know - when supply decreases, price increases.
How To Play Mass.Black
Mass.black is no different than any other game - by playing better than others, you’ll increase your chances of winning.
In this game, winning doesn’t have a set definition, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume winning means maximizing financial gain by getting Rare Burnable NFTs.
But how do you get these Rare Burnable NFTs?
In order to get your hands on them - you’ll need to win a “'mass.black event” (or drop).
Mass.Black Rules
“Game, set, match…”
The mass.black game consists of a sequence of mini-games (rounds).
Collectors that “win” a mini-game will be able to claim the prize in the form of Burnable NFTs.
A mini-game (round) is known as a mass.black “Event” or “Drop”.
Before an Event (round) takes place, Pak will announce the event’s rules, when will the event begin, and most importantly: when will the event end.
At the end of each Event, Pak will announce the event’s winners.
But how does Pak choose the winners?
The winners will be picked according to the event’s rules.
The event’s rules are called the “Drop Structure” or “Event Structure”.
In the drop structure, you’ll find out what’s the “Merge Criteria” that your Merge NFT needs to meet to win your Burnable NFT(s).
Once you’ll understand how to take advantage of a drop structure - you’ll be able to start to play the game and WIN BIG.
Understanding The Drop Structure
At every mass.black event you’ll need to extract the following 3 main components:
The Event Supply - how many NFTs are “up for grabs” in this mass.black event.
The Merge Criteria - what are the Merge token properties you need to meet to get Burnable NFTs.
The Burnable NFT Price - what you’ll “pay” to get the Burnable NFT (could also be free).
In some events extracting these 3 components can be trivial, but in others, it can be very tricky.
But don’t worry!
By the end of this blog post, you’ll be able to easily understand all of mass.black’s future drops.
Event Structure Breakdown (example)
“The first 20 m(15) tokens can swap their Merge for a Burnable NFT“.
This is what a possible event structure could look like…
Let’s break it down:
1. The Event Supply - there will be a maximum of 20 Burnable NFTs - {“first 20 people”}.
2. The Merge Criteria - to get the Burnable NFT you must be an m(15) owner - {“m(15) tokens can swap”}.
3. The Burnable NFT Price - the NFT will cost you the market price of your m(15) as you’ll have to exchange it for the Burnable NFT - {“m(15) tokens can swap”}.
Once you’ve extracted these 3 components from a Drop Structure, you’ll be many steps ahead of other collectors.
Getting ahead of the market
After you’ve got the 3 components, you can now ask yourself a simpler question.
“Is this my battle to fight?”
Let’s go back to the example above.
By analyzing the drop structure, we know that in this round, there will be no more than 20 Burnable NFTs. We also know that an m(15) market price at OpenSea is $1,000$.
According to that, if you own an m(15) - the question you should now ask yourself is:
“Should I buy a 1/20 Pak Burnable NFT for $1,000?”
The answer is… HELL YEAH!
Why?
Well… You can get a Burnable NFT that can be instantly burned for $2,000.
This Burnable NFT will only cost you $1,000.
So, you’re basically paying $1K to get $2K.
I don’t know about you, but this definitely sounds like a good deal to me!
However, if you don’t already own an m(15) - PAY ATTENTION.
Do you really think that you’re the only one who noticed that this is a good deal?
Most likely, you’re not.
The drop is limited to ONLY THE FIRST 20.
Buying & merging tokens can take time (even just a few minutes), and this means that there’s a significant risk of you not being amongst the first 20 who claim the NFTs.
Because of that, it’s very likely that you’ll be wasting your Merge tokens without getting anything in return.
In these limited supply types of drops, pulling the trigger only makes sense if you had already owned the specific token prior to the announcement.
Otherwise, you’d be better off waiting for a different opportunity.
Understanding the Risk<>Reward equation here is critical, and this is how I came up with my 6-step strategy to “win” merge.
Avoid This Mistake At All Costs!
Imagine that Pak announces an Event with a Drop Structure that exactly fits your Merge token.
Congrats, it’s your LUCKY DAY!
Or is it really just luck?
What if I told you, that players can increase their chances of getting their Merge tokens picked by Pak (meeting the Merge Criteria)?
Now things start to get interesting…
Let’s say you own an m(15) token. Now, you decide to buy another m(15) and merge them into a single m(30).
Awesome!! That’s the point of Merge after all, right?
WRONG!
Why?
Here’s a real-life example from Matter (The first mass.black Event) :
In plain English:
450 Burnable NFTs will be gifted to collectors who own a Merge with 10 or more mass.
The thing is… there are much more than 450 m(10+) holders.
So…Who gets the free NFTs?
In this case, out of all m(10+) holders, the 450 tokens with the highest token #id that ranges from 1 to ~28,950 will get the free NFTs.
This means that owners of m(15) with #id 28,500 or higher are 100% eligible!
Remember your two m(15)’s? Well, apparently one of them had an id of 28,500.
This means that you can claim a Pak Matter NFT - a Burnable NFT!
But wait…
You’ve merged it with another m(15) to get your bigger m(30) - by doing so, you’ve destroyed the token that qualified for the Burnable NFT.
Merging them had “lost” you at least $2,000.
This “theoretical” example happens in real life, all the time…
Let’s look at the reverse:
What if, instead of owning a single m(15), you held 15 different m(1) tokens?
How likely would’ve it been that one of them would be amongst the highest 450 IDs?
Exactly, 15x more likely!
When you use your resources wisely, you can really make a difference in how likely you are to win.
Let’s take a deeper look into that.
The 2 Ways To Win
As players, there are only 2 things you can control to increase your chances of winning:
1. How rare are the tokens you buy (or already own).
2. The number of tokens you own.
That’s it!
Let’s start with the first.
1. Your Merge Token’s Rarity
Not every Merge token is equal, some are more valuable than others.
Your friend’s m(1) can be rarer than your m(1).
Why?
The rarity of a Merge token is calculated by how many rare properties your merge token has.
Let’s say you have an m(1) with class=12.
There are 1,000 different tokens with class=12.
Your friend, however, has an m(1) with a class=50.
There are only 20 tokens with class=50.
1000 tokens have the same class as yours, but only 20 tokens have the same class as his.
This means that your friend’s token is much rarer than yours, even though both of them are m(1)’s.
So, if Pak chooses your friend’s class as a “Merge Criteria”, there will only be a maximum of 20 eligible tokens for this event.
It means, that the “Reward” is very rare - a Pak 1\20 NFT.
This is why your friend m(1) is a lot more valuable than yours.
No One Can Predict The Merge Criteria
Unless you can read Pak’s mind, there's no way you can predict what he will say or do.
If we know that this is true, why on earth will we choose to hold a common token over a rare one? Rare tokens are even priced the same as the common ones on OpenSea!
Why?
Because the sellers simply don’t know that their token is rare.
Perhaps YOU own a super rare token, without even knowing how rare it is!
How can you know if a token is actually rare?
Well, you can do it the hard way by going to OpenSea, filtering out each property manually (filter by class=1, class=2…), and so on….
But this method can take hours, and that data is limited. You can’t use OpenSea to find the intersection of different properties (e.g. what’s the biggest mass in each class?).
This is precisely why I created a tool that allows me to know at any point in time which tokens are the rarest, considering all properties…
For example, take a look at this graph that shows the supply left at each class:
(red=burned, blue=supply)
According to this graph, the rarest Merge class is class=62 with 205 tokens left. The “worst“ class is class=39 with 237 tokens left.
A 15% supply difference between the 2 classes can’t be ignored!
Now, if you’ll go to OpenSea and filter both of the classes you’ll be surprised to find out that the floor prices are:
“Rare Class = 62” - 0.2eth
“Worst Class = 39” - 0.4eth
The RARE MERGE TOKEN is half the price!
But how could anyone know that? They couldn’t.
But with the help of my tool, I can!
And since you’re reading this now, you can too.
But because the market is dynamic and is constantly changing, anything I write here will probably not be true by the time this is published…
Because of that, I’ve decided to create a closed group, where I will give updates about which tokes are currently rare so you can make your own data-driven decisions and much more.
If you’d like to join the group: Retweet this tweet and DM me on Twitter.
Now that you know what a “rare” Merge token is, you should get as many of them as you can, as each one will multiply your chances of getting a Rare Burnable NFT.
This leads me to the second point:
2. The Amount You Own
As I mentioned earlier, having 12 different “rare” m(1) tokens is much smarter than having a single m(12).
Why?
You simply have more options to “merge your way” into the “Merge Criteria” and win a Burnable NFT.
For example, if you own 12 m(1) tokens you can merge your way into:
2 x m(6)
4 x m(3)
1x m(8) & 1 x (m4)
1x m(12) ….
You have so many options!
If you had 1 x m(12), however, this is basically it.
No options…
The 6 Part Strategy
Now that you’ve learned everything you need to make these critical decisions on your own, you can use the following strategy to maximize your potential.
This strategy will help you if you already own Merge tokens or even just thinking of joining the project:
0. Budget Yourself
NFTs aren’t free, right?
A financial strategy that doesn’t take into account the overall budget is doomed to fail.
Why?
Simply put, without a rough budget, you’ll find yourself constantly changing your strategy without even knowing it.
The exact point of a strategy is to make you follow a structure that will help you take the emotions out of the equation and to avoid mistakes.
I’m not saying that the budget cannot be changed - but it should be part of the decision process.
1. Position Yourself
Now that you know that your Merge tokens are your keys to a Burnable NFT, you should make sure that you own the “rarest” tokens that you can get.
When I say “rare tokens“ I don’t mean buying the most expensive ones. I’m talking about the tokens that have rare attributes that are “invisible” to other collectors (reread “Your Merge Token’s Rarity” section for more info).
Why are rare Merge tokens important?
They can get you “Rare Burnable NFTs”.
How? Your Merge Tokens are your keys. The rarer your key is, the fewer people can “unlock” the door and get the same Burnable NFT as you.
So regardless of what your end goal is: to hold, flip or transform your merge into a Burnable NFT - the rarer your tokens are, the higher your chance to “win”.
3. Wait For a Mass.Black Event
Sounds simple, right? It is.
Yet many collectors will still fail to resist the FOMO Pak creates, and they’ll merge their tokens for no reason…
That’s a mistake, don’t fall for that.
4. Analyze
The number 1 strategic mistake that Merge collectors make is that they “compete” in mass.black events they don’t have an “unfair advantage” in.
If you decide to compete in an event where you don’t have an “unfair advantage”, you’ll end up “wasting “ your tokens by merging them without getting anything in return.
Remember, this is a HUGE mistake.
And… there’s more.
An additional “punishment“ the collectors get for merging for no reason is that they’ve decreased their chances of winning future drops, as they now own fewer tokens.
But what is an “unfair advantage”?
Simply put, let’s say you own a Merge(mass=1,class=4,id=28,500)
- if Pak says:
“all the highest ids will get…“
“single mass will…”
“classes with an even number are eligible…“
You have an “unfair advantage”.
Why?
Because your Merge token can help you “merge your way” to the Merge Criteria. And if you meet the Criteria you can get a Burnable NFT.
So in this step ask yourself a single question:
Do any of my Merge tokens have an “unfair” advantage for this mass.black Event?
No? Go back to step-2 and wait for the next mass.black event (or step 0, 1).
Yes? Continue to the next step.
5. Merge, Flip, Or Pass.
Now that we know that you have an “unfair advantage” in this mass.black event, you’ll have to decide how to use it to maximize your gains.
You have 3 options:
Go for the Win - you’ll compete for the Burnable NFTs.
Go for the Cash - you’ll sell your “unfair advantage” Merge token.
Don’t Go - you decide to pass on competing in this event.
Choosing each one of the options depends on your financial status, intentions, and so many factors, so I’ll cover all of them and let you decide how to act:
a. Go for the Win
You have a strong “unfair advantage”, and you feel confident that you’ll meet the “Merge Criteria“ (by using your other Merge tokens if needed).
The only thing you need to do is decide when to “merge your way“ into the “Merge Criteria“.
When the time is “right“ - MERGE & DO NOT HOLD BACK!
What’s the right time you ask?
If the event is time-sensitive (“first 20 will be able to claim…“) you must act immediately when the event is announced.
Otherwise, wait until the “last minute“ before you merge your tokens (before the event ends).
When the time arrives, make your final decision:
“To Merge Or Not To Merge…”
If you decide to Merge and go for the “Merge Criteria”, PULL THE TRIGGER and don’t look back.
b. Flip
You have an “unfair advantage” that can help you “merge your way” into the “Merge Criteria“.
Because of that, your Merge token is valued more by the market (until the event ends). This means, that you’ll be able to sell it to other collectors for a profit
Note: an m(1) token that meets the drop criteria can be worth multiple times more than other m(1)s.
When the time is right - sell your Merge token that can help others get the “Merge Criteria“ for a profit.
c. Pass
You have an “unfair advantage” that is NOT strong enough, or you think that you’ll have a greater chance in the future.
There are 2 main reasons to “pass“ on an event:
You can’t “win” this drop and don’t want to flip.
You don’t like the Drop Structure (too much Burnable NFT supply, high price, etc.).
Skipping a mass.black event even though you have an “unfair” advantage is a very hard decision, but it can be one of your biggest wins.
6. Reevaluate…
“The probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event”
Now that the event has ended, you need to reevaluate.
Why?
In simple words - no one cares about your past decisions!
Merge is a game of Probabilities - and probabilities don’t care about the past (you can get a good intuition by learning Markov Chains).
So like a great commander, you should always stay realistic and revisit your strategy!
If you’ll follow the 6-steps without losing conviction along the way you’ll see that it will work and you’ll be much more likely to “win” Merge.
Either Way Pak Will Make Us Dance…
Merge is a Game of Extinction…
Do you think that Pak will wake up one day and say:
“That was the last Merge Event, thanks to all the players!
The Game ended with 12,345 Merge tokens left - amazing extinction…”
No!
Merge will be played until the last player (or token) is left standing.
So if there’s one thing I want you to take from this article:
DO NOT FOMO, and choose the Drops that suit YOU!
You have time…
—
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Next up… $ASH! Bye Bye NFT Buyer
Stay tuned for my next blog post!